The October summit of EU leaders, originally earmarked as the moment when the Withdrawal Agreement and outline of the future relationship between the UK and the EU would be signed off, passed without the crucial necessary handshakes. The negotiations will rumble on.
Due to the lack of progress, EU leaders also agreed that grounds for calling a special Brexit Summit in November to seal the deal are insufficient, and so it is increasingly likely that December will become the new October.
The future of the Irish border and the UK’s relationship with the customs union continues to frustrate the process. At the summit, both the UK and the EU indicated their willingness to extend the planned transition period, allowing further time to find a plan that will avoid recourse to ‘backstop’ solution which would see Northern Ireland remain part of the customs union to prevent a hard border.
Theresa May reiterated her belief that the backstop will not need to be implemented but that, if it does, it will only be for a “matter of months” to bridge the gap between the end of the transition period and a future trade deal being implemented.
However, this plan presents three problems for the Prime Minister.
Brexiteers, already disgruntled at having to endure a transition period at all, are unhappy with the idea of it extending beyond December 2020 and the prospect of the UK continuing to contribute to the EU budget and abide by EU decisions whilst no longer being able to influence them.
Although not the intention, it is possible that an extended transition period could go on longer than anticipated and coincide with the EU entering its next budget cycle. If the UK is still a de facto member of the EU at that time, what will be its financial obligations for that period? Equally, an extended transition could conceivably continue up to the date of the next UK election and the possibility of a new government being elected with a different plan for Brexit.
Finally, it is not clear at this stage if any extension of the transition period will be enough to find a workable solution to the Irish border issue. If not, what would be the point of prolonging it in the first instance?
Meanwhile, further discontent has been sown within Westminster, particularly among Remain supporters, by government hints that the meaningful vote offered to MPs on any deal agreed with the EU is likely to be on a ‘take it or leave it’ basis. This would mean that MPs would be unable to propose amendments, such as calling for a second referendum or renegotiation of its terms. Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab, has suggested that uncertainty would grow for businesses and citizens if ‘straightforward approval’ of a deal was not forthcoming.
That uncertainty has already led to calls from some sectors of British industry for the UK to stay within a customs union following Brexit.
To allay fears on the progress of Brexit negotiations and to galvanise support for her Chequers plan, Theresa May has insisted that the deal is 95% done. That may be true but remember – “Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.”
Article published: 23rd October 2018
