In homage to the classic 1980’s film Back to the Future, let’s for a moment travel back in time to December 2017 and Theresa May’s dash to Brussels to successfully conclude Phase 1 of the Brexit talks. A crucial aspect was the adoption of a backstop proposal which stated that, in the absence of a more suitable alternative, Northern Ireland would remain in ‘full alignment’ with the customs union following Brexit to prevent the return to a hard border in Ireland. This briefly caused a furore among members of the Democratic Unionist Party whose support Mrs May’s government relies on. Strong assurances from the Prime Minister that the backstop would not be required were enough to push things forward on that occasion.
Okay, let’s strap ourselves back into the Brexit Delorean and jump forward to the present day once more. Ten months on, an alternative to the backstop acceptable to all parties remains elusive. In the meantime, Theresa May has stated the EU’s proposal that Northern Ireland should stay within the customs union and single market to ensure backstop principle is upheld, is unworkable. The Prime Minister insists that it would undermine the relationship between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Instead, as part of the Chequers plan, the Prime Minister proposed that the entire UK should remain within the customs union for a limited period that does not go beyond December 2020, when transition is due to end. Whilst the EU does not wholly reject the idea, it has insisted that a passage relating specifically to Northern Ireland must be included in the Withdrawal Agreement.
Within the UK government, there are demands that the backstop time limit must be both specific and brief. However, the EU’s position is that a time-limited backstop would not constitute the insurance policy that it is supposed to be, and it is also determined that any arrangement does not undermine the integrity of the single market. For Brexiteers, the concern is that the UK being locked into the customs union until a trade deal can be agreed would amount to Brexit in name only (or ‘Brino’ as it has become referred to in the Brexit lexicon).
So, what might things look like if we travel into the future and imagine ourselves on New Year’s Eve 2020? There are suggestions that checks on standards of goods moving from the UK mainland to Northern Ireland could take place at locations (such as factories) away from the Irish border and ports. It is also anticipated that there will be no such regulatory checks on goods travelling in the opposite direction. Customs checks, on the other hand, remain a bone of contention and something to be addressed during the transition period. As far as the UK and the EU being able to finalise a trade deal by then is concerned, there is widespread scepticism. The EU-Canada trade deal, for example, took seven years to negotiate. Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, has estimated that it will take between five and seven years. Furthermore, if the trade deal is a ‘Canada’ model free trade agreement, then it will be difficult to guarantee the continuation of open Irish border arrangement.
Perhaps most importantly, without the backstop, the EU warns that (much like Marty McFly’s hand in Back to the Future) the withdrawal agreement and subsequent transition period will vanish into thin air.
Article published: 25th October 2018
