Since the EU agreed to postpone the date of the UK’s departure until 31 October 2019, you may be forgiven for thinking that things had gone very quiet on the Brexit front. However, in-keeping with the history of Brexit thus far, a deceptive lack of news has often been a portent for a significant event in the offing. Remember ‘the tunnel’ phase or the hiatus before the Chequers plan was revealed, anyone?
Currently, talks continue between the UK government and Labour to find a compromise deal that would be acceptable to the majority of MPs in parliament. News of how the discussions are progressing has been sketchy but recent comments from those involved suggest that they are optimistic about achieving a breakthrough. This could be interpreted as a signal that the government is prepared to agree to remaining within a customs union in order to get a deal through and move onto the next phase of Brexit – the future relationship with the EU.
However, even if that was the case, it’s far from certain that a deal containing any such proposal would be accepted by parliament. Some pro-Brexit MPs, whose influence extends beyond their numbers, may choose to reject a deal that retains ties to the EU, instead preferring to leave with no deal. And whilst the government is under pressure to pass a deal, the Labour party leadership has faced a barrage of calls from within its own ranks to commit to a second Brexit referendum. As a result, it has pledged to demand a second vote if the government doesn’t shift on the deal it originally proposed or decide to hold a general election.
Speaking of elections, looming on the horizon are the European elections in which the UK will almost certainly have to participate as a result of the Brexit postponement. The results of the poll, due to be held on 23 May, could have profound implications for how Brexit plays out from here.
So, the date of Brexit may have changed, providing some breathing space for all concerned, but the parliamentary arithmetic hasn’t. And, crucially, the clock continues to tick…
