On Tuesday 13 November, negotiators emerged from the ‘tunnel phase’ of the Brexit talks, blinking in the Brussels sunlight, with a draft Withdrawal Agreement secured and an embryonic outline of the future relationship between the UK and the EU.
The details will be pored over by the UK cabinet this afternoon (14 November). If consent is given, it will then be scrutinised by the EU 27 with the possibility of convening an emergency summit at the end of the month to formally sign off the deal.
Should these two hurdles be passed, the Agreement will then return to the UK parliament to face its sternest test of all, a meaningful vote of all MPs to approve or reject it. Currently, MPs from all parties remain deeply divided on how to proceed. The contentious issue (to put it mildly!) of the Irish border was the final piece of the jigsaw required to complete the draft Withdrawal Agreement. At the time of writing, details of how this has been achieved remain sketchy at best but the reaction of the DUP, upon whose support the UK government relies, will be crucial to the fate of the deal. The DUP has warned that it will not accept a deal that treats Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the UK.
Another key point to look for in the draft deal is how the UK can extricate itself from the backstop arrangement, should it be required. The UK wants this to be determined by UK-EU joint committee, whilst the EU wants the decision to be made by a separate arbitration panel that would include independent members.
Some MPs are suggesting that the Agreement should be ditched now in favour of joining the European Economic Area in the immediate future. From this point, they argue, it could then negotiate a long-term deal which follows the Canada template. This has become colloquially as the ‘Norway for Now’ option. However, Theresa May and existing EEA members, including Norway, have poured cold water on the suggestion.
And Remainers have not given up hope of forcing a complete U-turn on Brexit during the transition period and the UK asking to be reinstated as permanent EU members. However, if this were to happen, the UK would lose its EU budget rebate and various opt-outs, such as from adopting the Euro. Therefore, the strategy is unlikely to gain wider support among MPs.
Further issues regarding labour regulations and environmental standards were among the final points to be thrashed out in Brussels in the last few days. The EU is keen to ensure that a level playing field is maintained post-Brexit to prevent UK firms from undercutting their European competitors.
The EU has also fleshed out its preparations for a no deal outcome. This includes a series of planning seminars held in November covering a range of issues such as implications for border controls, citizens’ rights, financial services and transport.
So, the journey through the tunnel is complete. Is there any light at the end of it? We’ll keep you posted…
