The government’s Chief Whip ended a tumultuous day at Westminster by uttering a single word ‘tomorrow’, an arcane procedure used to postpone votes in Parliament. So, after all the build-up, tomorrow never came.
In this instance, the vote that has been delayed is perhaps the most important facing parliament in the post-war era – on the ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement. The circumstances surrounding the postponement were dramatic.
Facing a significant defeat on the proposed Agreement, the Prime Minister took the decision to pull the vote barely 24 hours before it was due to take place. Later, she appeared before parliament to explain her decision and was quizzed by MPs about what happens next.
In response, Theresa May confirmed that she will embark on a series of meetings with European heads of state prior to an EU summit to be held on Thursday at which Brexit will be discussed. Mrs May hopes that her efforts will lead to reassurances from the EU that the UK will not be forced to remain in any potential Irish border backstop arrangement indefinitely, and that this will be sufficient to satisfy enough MPs to win the vote. However, changes to the legal document have already been ruled out by the EU and all that is currently being promised is ‘clarification’ of its terms.
Without any meaningful change to the Withdrawal Agreement, the government still faces the prospect of being defeated in a parliamentary vote, which it has indicated must take place by 21 January in order to pass the necessary legislation in time for ‘Brexit Day’ on 29 March. At this point, if no deal has been agreed, parliament may be able to take over control of the process from the government.
So, do yesterday’s events push us closer to the ‘cliff edge’ of an unmanaged no deal scenario or even increase the chances of a second referendum with a possible no Brexit outcome? Amid the breathless scenes at Westminster, the European Court of Justice confirmed yesterday that the UK could revoke Article 50 and halt Brexit unilaterally.
Given the fluidity of the situation, it is impossible to know for sure the course that events will take, and that leads to further problems. Financial markets reacted badly; the pound sank to a 20-month low and businesses voiced their unease at the lack of clarity.
Meanwhile, Conservative MPs are deliberating over whether to mount a leadership challenge against Theresa May, whilst Opposition MPs are weighing up whether to bring a vote of no confidence against the government.
At this stage, it’s unclear when the vote on the Withdrawal Agreement will be held and the deadlock broken. Tomorrow is yet to come; but come it surely must.
