There was no Brexit oasis in the desert for Theresa May as she attended the EU-Arab summit in Egypt last weekend. Instead, she was reminded by EU leaders that failure to secure parliamentary support for a deal would inevitably lead to Brexit being delayed or the UK leaving without a deal. For the moment, achieving legal changes to the Withdrawal Agreement are just a mirage. However, hopes of securing a deal have not entirely vanished and the looming deadline of 29 March is concentrating minds…and changing minds.
In the wider Brexit landscape, the sands have been shifting dramatically ever since the government lost the meaningful vote on the Withdrawal Agreement in mid-January. Now, with resignations of MPs from both main political parties for various reasons (including Brexit), significant tremors are also transforming the topography of the UK parliament. All of this makes it very difficult to predict the denouement.
Further amendments are set to be tabled in the UK parliament this week on how the Brexit process should be handled. Some MPs (including cabinet and junior ministers) are considering alternative steps to avoid a no deal scenario. The first move would be to back an amendment to delay Brexit, followed by parliament taking control of the process and forcing the Prime Minister to extend Article 50. To avoid a possible defeat and subsequent ministerial resignations, the government may themselves offer MPs a vote on this issue that could delay the UK’s leaving date until 23 May.
There is little sign that negotiations during the last month have sufficiently allayed the concerns of enough MPs who voted down the Withdrawal Agreement previously. In light of this, Theresa May has decided to delay the second meaningful vote on it, setting a deadline of 12 March for it to be held. The EU is urging the UK government to secure parliamentary approval by that date for a specific proposal on how it wishes to alter the deal currently on the table. Crucially, parliamentary approval for a revised deal could be required before EU leaders are prepared to consider it.
With concerns growing that no deal is the most likely outcome, Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission President, has said that it would have: “terrible economic and social consequences, both in Britain and on the continent.” However, there is a perception within the EU and that the no deal planning it has already conducted will mitigate the problems caused by such an outcome to manageable levels, whilst the negative impact would be greater for the UK.
Meanwhile, attempting to stem the flow of MPs leaving the party and appease Remain-supporting grassroots members, Labour has pledged to back a second referendum as a last resort if parliament does not support its approach to Brexit. This would involve the UK staying permanently within a customs union with the EU and maintaining close regulatory alignment. Labour would also endorse a second public vote on the government’s deal if it’s approved by parliament.
Just four weeks away from 29 March, the burning issue is whether the Brexit date should be postponed in order to avoid a no deal outcome. A decision on whether a delay is required, and how long it should last, is for the UK government and the EU to decide and the matter was discussed in Egypt. Until now, the Prime Minister has been adamant that Brexit should not be delayed – but until the gathering sandstorm clears, that might be the only remaining course of action.
