In previous blogs, I’ve likened Brexit to mountaineering and the plot from Back to the Future. The ‘rollercoaster ride’ is one clichéd analogy I’ve managed to avoid – until now.
The process has been a series of long, drawn-out periods of negotiations (the climbs) punctuated with dramatic events (the drops) which change the course of the Brexit train or threaten to derail it all together. After the adrenalin rush of the hurtling descent marked by the government’s defeat on the Withdrawal Agreement by a record 230 votes last month, the rollercoaster is now lumbering up the next steep incline towards another thrilling, stomach-churning apex.
With just six weeks remaining until the 29 March Brexit deadline, set by the triggering of Article 50, the UK Prime Minister has appealed to MPs for more time to achieve a breakthrough in talks with the EU, calling on them to ‘hold their nerve’. This follows a promise made by the EU to keep negotiations open although, tellingly, not on the Withdrawal Agreement which it considers done and dusted.
This week, another much-anticipated meaningful vote on Brexit options in the House of Commons was postponed and replaced by a non-binding ‘next steps’ debate, at the end of which the Government was defeated on the motion which asked MPs to back its current negotiating strategy – this time by a majority of 44.
The defeat is seen by many Brexit observers to have strengthened the hand of the EU. Whilst the UK parliament remains divided on how to proceed, the EU is reluctant to offer any concessions to the Prime Minister. If no breakthrough is forthcoming in talks between the UK and the EU by 27 February, a new amendable Brexit motion will be tabled.
The latest set of talks are focused on alternatives the backstop, rather the backstop itself which the EU insists is set in stone. Theresa May has also rejected Jeremy Corbyn’s proposal for the UK to continue to operate within a permanent customs union after Brexit and adopt a Norway-style deal. She has said that this would be a ‘less desirable’ approach than that laid out in the non-binding political declaration that accompanied the draft Withdrawal Agreement. Mrs May is hoping to persuade a number of Labour MPs who are nervous about a ‘no deal’ outcome to eventually rebel and support the proposed deal.
Meanwhile, MPs Yvette Cooper and Nick Boles are reported to be revising their Bill on Article 50 which, if passed, would call for an extension to be granted if Theresa May cannot secure a parliamentary majority for a deal by mid-March. However, the EU is unlikely to countenance this unless it is in order to hold a general election or second referendum, rather than simply to play for time and avoid a disorderly exit.
It would appear that the ‘white knuckle’ Brexit ride is heading into its final and sharpest turns.
