For some months, the prospect that the Brexit impasse could result in a general election has lurked on the horizon. Now it looms large after MPs passed an SO24 motion to take control of parliamentary business today, with the intention of forcing Boris Johnson to request a further extension of the Brexit deadline to 31 January 2020.
The anticipated response from the Prime Minister will be to imminently seek a vote among MPs allowing him to dissolve parliament and call an election. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act 2010, this requires a two-thirds majority in order to be passed. If it succeeds, the date of the election is expected to be 14th October, the date which Mr Johnson had originally pencilled in for a Queen’s Speech to open a new parliamentary session.
So how have we arrived at this dramatic and unprecedented moment?
Despite encouraging noises from No. 10, a renegotiated deal seems a remote possibility as the EU insists that no new proposals have been tabled. With the 31st October deadline fast approaching, that appears to leave no deal or another extension as the most likely outcomes. Boris Johnson has continually ruled out a further extension, a stance which would point towards no deal. However, the cross-party alliance of MPs opposed to no deal came together to thwart that possibility by passing the SO24 motion last night.
Therefore, in order to prevent a further extension and meet the 31st October deadline, the PM’s only remaining option is the nuclear one – calling a general election in the hope that it will deliver him a sufficient majority to force Brexit through, with or without a deal.
Brexit continues to take us into uncharted waters. Conservative MPs who rebelled to vote through the S024 motion have had the whip removed and the government’s majority has vanished. The Opposition parties are not prepared to countenance an election until they can be certain that a no deal scenario at the end of October has been avoided. This will be guaranteed with the passing of the emergency bill which is expected to complete its passage into law by the end of this week.
However, the outcome of any election, if triggered, is far from certain and, therefore, so is the Brexit strategy of the government that would follow.
