Another long and eventful week in the Brexit saga is drawing to a close with the UK parliament in uproar as the executive and legislature lock horns.
At stake, not only the destiny of Brexit and the future it will shape for the UK, but also who governs and how? Described in some quarters as a moment of ‘quasi-revolution’, the drama currently playing out in Westminster suggests that this view has more substance than mere hyperbole.
MPs have flexed their collective muscle to effectively stave off a no deal Brexit at the end of October. They appear to have won this battle but not necessarily the war to eliminate this outcome. Parliament has ordered the prime minister to seek an extension of the Brexit deadline until 31st January which may only serve to postpone no deal rather than prevent it.
Equally, the result of a snap general election, which now seems almost inevitable, may still lead to no deal being kept as an available option by a new administration. The big question regarding a poll is not if, but when it would be held. Opposition parties will have a significant say in setting the date and they may decide that it’s to their political advantage to delay until November. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson will seek to call an election again on Monday, after his first attempt on Wednesday night failed to achieve the required consent of two-thirds of MPs.
Meanwhile, the EU looks on in bewilderment. As far as it is concerned, Brexit negotiations are paralysed as a result of the Westminster impasse. Major issues remain over the Irish border backstop designed to prevent a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic. Another bone of contention is the proposed divergence by the UK from EU standards as part of a future free trade arrangement. The EU is determined to retain the integrity of the single market in the wake of Brexit and is worried that any attempts by the UK to undercut those standards would have a damaging effect in this regard.
So, week one of the new session of parliament and Round One appears to have gone to the legislature, following their apparently successful passing of the Benn Bill. With the Prime Minister firmly sticking by his objective of meeting the 31st October deadline, expect to see the Executive to come out fighting next week…
