The race to replace Theresa May as UK prime minister is between two remaining candidates who, perhaps unsurprisingly, hold differing views on how to resolve the Brexit conundrum.
With the new Halloween deadline looming, Boris Johnson has repeatedly insisted that the UK must leave the EU on 31 October with or without a deal. Despite expressing his confidence that the draft Withdrawal Agreement can be renegotiated by then, the fact that Mr Johnson is prepared to countenance a no deal exit as an alternative is causing some alarm among business leaders whilst pleasing staunch Brexiteers.
His opponent for the premiership, Jeremy Hunt, is equally hopeful of securing the necessary changes to the Withdrawal Agreement that would allow parliament to vote it through. However, Mr Hunt has suggested that he is more open to a further brief extension of the deadline if it meant that a deal could be struck. Should a deal be out of reach, Mr Hunt has also signalled that he is prepared to allow the UK to leave without a deal.
On 22 July, we’ll discover which of these Brexit roadmaps will be pursued when the winner of the contest is announced. But, either way, does all this bold talk of no deal make the outcome more likely?
The EU continues to reiterate that negotiations are closed and that the Withdrawal Agreement remains on the table in its current form on a take it or leave it basis. Unless the new PM is persuasive enough to force a rethink of this stance in Brussels then no deal is very much on the cards.
However, ever since Theresa May signed up to the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU, the stumbling block has been the UK parliament. In a series of votes held since the beginning of the year, it has shown neither an appetite for the deal nor for no deal. There is not enough parliamentary support for a second referendum to settle the argument either.
Unless the numbers shift sufficiently in favour of any of these outcomes, and assuming the EU remains resolutely against renegotiation, then the only remaining option, other than suspending parliament, appears to be holding a pre-Halloween general election. The result of any such election could create a majority for a particular course of action. However, the electorate appears to still be divided on Brexit to the extent that it’s far from certain whether any new government would have a majority to impose its will.
It seems that, faced with the Brexit dilemma, the new prime minister may well view the House of Commons as a ‘House of Horrors’ as Halloween approaches. Don’t come out from behind the sofa just yet…
