When is a deadline not a deadline? When it’s a Brexit deadline. Hilarious, eh? All the best jokes are based on a modicum of truth.
Deadlines have been pushed back, or disappeared entirely, throughout the Brexit process. Now, even 29 March – the date the UK is due to leave under Article 50 and the most totemic deadline of all – is not guaranteed. That’s because the government has been forced to bow to pressure applied by parliament to extend Article 50 to avoid a no deal Brexit.
Four weeks out from 29 March and with no deal agreed or on the immediate horizon, the urgency of the situation is causing Brexit positions, previously held as sacred, to change. Labour endorsed a second referendum and the Prime Minister offered MPs a vote on extending Article 50 within the space of 48 hours this week. As little as a month ago, neither shift was predicted.
Theresa May remains opposed to extending Article 50, warning that it would lead to a sharper cliff edge. However, she had no choice but to put the matter to parliament in order to avoid ministerial resignations.
Therefore, the government will hold two further votes if the Withdrawal Agreement is again rejected by MPs on or before 12 March – one on no deal and the other on a short extension Article 50. These will take place on 13 and 14 March respectively. It is not yet clear how MPs will be instructed to vote but, given the pattern of previous votes, the most likely outcomes would be a) the Withdrawal Agreement is rejected, b) no deal is rejected, c) Article 50 is extended. This projection comes with the huge caveat that things are moving very quickly now and opinions among MPs are subject to change in reaction to events (see above).
For now, on the surface, it would appear that those calling for the UK to remain within the EU, or advocating a soft Brexit, are in the ascendancy – there’s the real possibility of an extension to Article 50 and no deal being rejected; the Independent Group of MPs has been established and is pushing for a new direction on Brexit; and Labour has responded by openly backing a second referendum if its preferred option of a soft Brexit is rejected.
However, despite all that, the no deal cliff edge remains, potentially further away than it was before but sharper. The pressure on MPs to vote for the deal now may be reduced as any extension agreed would allow more time to tweak the deal. Brexiteers will not necessarily vote for Withdrawal Agreement as it stands simply to avoid an extension of Article 50. If the deal is voted down for a second time, other options may come back into play, such as Labour’s customs union proposal. And the DUP believes that an extension of Article 50 will only dilute the Prime Minister’s chances of securing backstop changes from the EU.
The EU seems open to the idea of a short extension to Article 50. If it is extended, then 1 July appears to be the latest date that the UK could remain as an EU member state without having to take part in the 2019 European elections. Meanwhile, negotiations are continuing between the UK and the EU on alternative methods to avoid the need to implement the backstop.
So, are we heading for a ‘Brextension’? Where you choose to place the hyphen in the word is up to you. The Brexit tension may be extended very soon.
