A pivotal week in the Brexit process is set to begin, with strong indications that the UK parliament is in no mood to accept the proposed Withdrawal Agreement or the prospect of no deal.
The government is still widely expected to lose the Withdrawal Agreement vote on 15 January, albeit by a smaller margin than was anticipated if it had gone ahead in December. Should this assumption prove to be correct then, in the words of the Prime Minister, we are entering ‘uncharted waters’.
Ahead of the vote, government is trying to win over as many sceptical MPs as it can to support the deal by promising parliament that it will be given a say in what happens concerning the implementation of the backstop, including the option to extend any transition period instead of adopting it and giving the Northern Ireland assembly a stronger influence on regulatory arrangements under the backstop. However, the EU has responded immediately by reiterating that the Withdrawal Agreement would be legally binding and above any unilateral decision made by the UK parliament on the backstop issue. The UK government has also expressed a willingness to add post-Brexit assurances on the protection of workers’ rights in order to persuade Opposition MPs to back the deal in Withdrawal Agreement vote.
An amendment vote has been won which will require the government to present an alternative course of action within three days of losing the vote. Any new proposal brought by the government in that period would also be subject to amendment by parliament and this may process may give an indication of which, if any, alternative Brexit strategy would have the support of a majority of MPs.
The Opposition is also expected to table a vote of no confidence in the government if the Withdrawal Agreement vote is lost, with the intention of forcing a general election.
These moves, alongside an amendment to the finance bill to block the government from introducing new taxes in the event of a no deal, can been seen collectively as parliament’s clear intention to take control of the Brexit process if the government is unable to carry through its own agenda. This is being driven by 200+ strong group of MPs who want to see no deal removed from the range of possible outcomes and prevent the government from ‘running down the clock’ on Brexit. Many MPs have accused the government of doing this to force parliament to make a binary choice between the currently proposed Withdrawal Agreement or no deal only.
With no prospect of negotiations on the Withdrawal Agreement being reopened with the EU, Theresa May could be left with the only option of returning to Brussels and requesting an extension of Article 50…unless events overtake her.
