In the wake of the seismic reaction to its Brexit plan which was agreed by the cabinet at the Chequers summit on 6th July, the UK Government has published detailed plans in a White Paper for the UK’s future relationship with the EU.
It includes a proposal to establish an EU association agreement which would create the framework for co-operation between them. However, this is something usually reserved for countries that want to join the EU rather than leave it. Whilst the EU appears open to the idea, providing that the UK discards some of its red lines in the next round of negotiations, many Brexiteers perceive such an agreement as an unacceptable kind of ‘semi-Brexit’.
As well as the association agreement, the UK is asking for a common rulebook with the EU to govern standards and regulations in relation to goods only. The existing single market rulebook relates to goods and services. It also calls for a ‘facilitated customs arrangement’ which would result in both the UK and the EU collecting tariffs for goods entering the UK. A separate arrangement is proposed for services which will loosen current trading ties with the EU.
The EU is expected to view this proposal as ‘cherry picking’ and undermining to the integrity of the single market. Meanwhile, Brexiteers see it as a betrayal of the referendum result, leading to the UK leaving the EU ‘in name only’ which would mean that it will become a ‘rule taker’ from the EU. The UK Government insists it will have the power to reject any future changes that the EU wants to make to the common rulebook. It also argues that the proposed arrangement will ensure ‘frictionless trade’ across borders, protect supply chains, and allow the UK to forge new free trade deals with other countries. In the event of disputes over the terms of the rulebook, the White Paper calls for a new dispute mechanism to be equally presided over by the ECJ and UK courts and for independent arbitration to be conducted.
The Government states that the plans contained in its White Paper will ensure that the creation of a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland or between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK is avoided.
Whilst the jurisdiction of the ECJ in the UK will officially end following Brexit, the proposals preserve the ECJ as the interpreter of EU rules in the UK. The Government contends that the UK would have a veto over ECJ decisions and that common rules should be established. The White Paper also hints at giving EU citizens preferential access to entering the UK following Brexit. Once again, Brexiteers are likely to be unimpressed with such plans.
Further provision is made for co-operation on security, aviation, nuclear power and institutional frameworks to deliver the new arrangements.
In his initial response to the document, Michel Barnier confirmed that the EU would analyse its content prior to Brexit negotiations resuming in Brussels next week. He tweeted that the EU’s proposed deal includes an ambitious free trade agreement and effective cooperation on a range of issues, including security. This offer would appear to be some distance from the ‘deep and special’ new relationship that Theresa May is hoping for.
However, it is the scale of domestic opposition to proposals set out in the White Paper that may pose the biggest threat to its implementation. There is growing concern that, as it stands, the proposed deal would not receive the support of Parliament. Indeed, given the extent to which Parliament is divided on the issue, there may not be a majority for any kind of final deal. Should that situation transpire, what happens then is anyone’s guess.
Article published: 13th July 2018
