The Conservative Party has returned to power in the UK following last Thursday’s general election. In a result that gave him a decisive majority of 80, Boris Johnson now has the mandate to push through his Withdrawal Agreement. The prospect of a second referendum or revocation of Article 50 have vanished. This means that, after all the uncertainty of the last two and a half years, Brexit will happen.
Less certain is what form it will take. The UK is expected to leave the EU by 31 January 2020 and the process of negotiating a new trading relationship with the EU will begin. At present, the deadline set for completing this second phase of Brexit negotiations is 31 December 2020, the proposed end date of the transition period. Until then, the UK will continue to abide by EU regulations.
The prime minister has repeatedly expressed his confidence that a deal can be struck by that date and insists that he will not seek any further extension beyond the end of 2020. In a departure from the approach taken by his predecessor, Theresa May, it’s becoming clear that Mr Johnson will seek a Canada-style free trade deal. However, this will need to be fleshed out considerably over the coming months.
During the election campaign, much was made of the potential for a no deal outcome still to play out if a trade deal can’t be reached within 12 months. The EU’s deal with Canada took several years to complete. Although the UK government insists that its existing relationship with the EU combined with the template of the Canada deal will significantly speed up the process, there are still many complex issues to be addressed if it is to be comprehensive in its nature.
The extent of the detail included will also determine the extent to which the UK remains aligned to EU rules and standards. The more stripped down it is, the looser the relationship is likely to be, thus allowing greater divergence. A narrowly focused initial deal could also be used as the foundation of a wider deal to be phased in over a period of years. However, this approach may be less popular with business leaders who would rather plan for one set of changes.
Unlike Mrs May, Boris Johnson is sanguine about keeping ‘no deal’ on the table, believing that it will help concentrate minds on achieving a deal by the deadline. Meanwhile, the EU states that it is ready to forge a new relationship with the UK that is ambitious, free and fair whilst maintaining the unity of the EU 27.
But all of that is for another day. Right now, all the focus is on the momentous departure that has hung in the balance for months but is about to take place. This time, there is no going back.
