In recent weeks, senior UK government ministers have made a series of keynote speeches, collectively titled ‘The Road to Brexit’, intended to set out the vision of the future relationship it wants with the EU. So, what can we glean from their content? And what is the likelihood that the proposals put forward will be greeted favourably by the EU?
First up was the Foreign Secretary and a figurehead of the Leave campaign, Boris Johnson. His speech was aimed at reassuring Remain voters that the results of Brexit will be positive and reiterating that there could be no turning back from the referendum decision. Mr Johnson stressed the need for regulatory divergence between the UK and EU after Brexit. However, in terms of new detail of what that would entail, little was added.
The focus then switched to Munich, where the Prime Minister concentrated on matters of security. The adopted approach also switched – from divergence to alignment. Mrs May delivered her now familiar phrase calling for ‘a deep and special relationship’ with the EU and continued close cooperation. Specifically, this would relate to sanctions, security operations and cyber and defence capabilities. The UK also wants to establish new working arrangements to replace its expiring membership of the European Arrest Warrant, Europol and the Schengen Information System. In response, the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker said that whilst “the security bridge between the UK and the EU would still be maintained” the issue could not be mixed up with others.
The theme of cooperation between the UK and EU also featured heavily in the next ‘Road to Brexit’ speech, on this occasion delivered by the Brexit Secretary David Davis. His remit covered regulations and standards and emphasised the UK government’s desire to maintain frictionless trade with the EU. Mr Davis sought to allay some concerns that Brexit would lead to an erosion of workers’ rights and environmental standards. He also expressed confidence that a deal on future arrangements could be achieved by the end of 2018.
In terms of trade, the speech called for both the UK and EU to recognise each other’s regulations after Brexit and for them to be guided by the common principles of open trade and fair competition. The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has previously insisted that, if the UK is intent on leaving the single market and adopting its own standards and regulations, it would be ‘impossible’ to expect them to be recognised by the EU. There is wider concern within the EU that adopting the UK’s proposal would risk the ability of the single market to function properly.
The British Cabinet Office minister David Lidington used his ‘Road to Brexit’ speech to address the implications that leaving the EU could have for devolution within the UK. In it, he emphasised that Brexit should not precipitate the break-up of the UK. This is another challenging issue that has been raised by Brexit, particularly as the ruling party in Scotland, the SNP, advocates its reversal. The on-going questions about the future of the Irish border is a further issue that could have an impact on the future of the union.
The final ‘Road to Brexit’ speech, delivered by International Trade Secretary Liam Fox, warned against the UK giving up control of its trade policy as a result of Brexit. A staunch supporter of leaving the EU, Mr Fox again called for the UK to abandon the customs union to allow for new international trade deals to be negotiated.
We now await the Prime Minister’s own speech on Friday 2nd March. Like those she gave at Lancaster House and in Florence last year, this latest intervention is designed to clarify the UK’s negotiating position in readiness for Phase 2 talks. The ‘Road to Brexit’ has highlighted the range of views held within the Cabinet and the task now falls to Theresa May to combine them in a cohesive pitch to present to the EU.
Article published: 27th February 2018
