The UK government will bring its EU Withdrawal Agreement Bill before parliament to be voted on in the first week of June. This is the piece of legislation required to enact the Prime Minister’s proposed deal with the EU. But whichever way the vote goes, Mrs May’s premiership is coming to an end and, should the next stage of Brexit happen, the forging of a new relationship with the EU will take place under a new Prime Minister.
On the face of it, the chances of the Bill passing based on the proposed deal are very slim. Negotiations with Labour to tweak the deal in such a way that it would gain their support appear to have been fruitless and are expected to come to an end imminently without agreement. Labour were seeking a permanent customs union to avoid internal tariffs on goods traded between the UK and the EU. The talks provoked a negative response from pro-Brexit MPs who feel that remaining in a customs union would prevent the UK from establishing trade deals with other countries outside the EU.
If the Bill comes to parliament with the substance of the proposed deal unchanged, then it is likely to suffer the same fate as the deal itself did on the three occasions that it was presented in a ‘meaningful vote’ format.
If the Prime Minister is successful, the passage of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill through parliament can then be completed, allowing the UK to formally leave the EU this summer. At this point, she will also confirm the timetable for her departure as Prime Minister.
However, if the deal fails once again, Mrs May is expected to announce her resignation immediately or face a no-confidence vote of party officials and members on 15 June. Her replacement will then be presented with the task of navigating an alternative route to Brexit before 31 October.
If a new approach cannot be found then it appears that, with a further of extension of Article 50 unlikely, the UK will be faced with the binary choice of leaving the EU without a deal on 31 October or revoking Article 50 to halt Brexit.
Meanwhile, changes are afoot on the EU side of the Brexit negotiations with a new European parliament and commission set to take shape following the EU elections later this month.
All of this means that, with a switch in the key personnel, Brexit negotiations themselves could divert to a different path. We’ll soon discover just how significant those changes will be.
