This week’s furore over the fate of the Irish border has crystalised another key issue in the great Brexit debate – what regulatory arrangements between the EU and the UK will follow at the end of the process?
The draft joint statement between the EU and the UK, which led to the breakdown in negotiations on Monday, called for continued regulatory alignment between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) was unwilling to accept this scenario as it sensed that this would be a different trading arrangement from the one to be agreed between the EU and the rest of the UK – a softer form of Brexit.
In response, the UK government insisted that Northern Ireland would not be treated any differently, suggesting that the entire UK would continue to have regulatory alignment with the EU. This, in turn, upset supporters of Brexit, who argued that it would be a betrayal of the vote to leave the EU if the regulatory system was to remain roughly the same as it is now.
So which path will be chosen? A high road of close alignment or a low road of regulatory divergence?
Throughout negotiations thus far, Theresa May has insisted that it is possible to build another road entirely, calling for a bespoke trading relationship to be adopted. The blueprint of this road remains unclear as Phase 2 discussions are yet to begin and with apparent division in the UK camp as to what it should look like.
To help clarify the situation, the UK government has frequently argued that it is impossible to disentangle trade (a Phase 2 issue) from borders and customs arrangements (a Phase 1 issue in the case of Ireland) and that the EU should allow talks to progress and discuss both in tandem. So far, this is something that the EU has refused to allow, insisting that the structure of the talks was agreed by both parties in advance and must be followed.
At some point very soon, a decision must be made on which road to take. Will the EU yield and allow Phase 2 to begin with the Irish border issue still to be resolved? This could allow the foundations of Theresa May’s alternative route to be laid. Or can the UK government coalesce in choosing the low or the high road on customs regulation?
If none of these options is possible then the Brexit road may lead to the cliff edge of a ‘no deal’ that both the EU and the UK have insisted they want to avoid. Hold on tight, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
Article published: 7th December 2017
