Brexit has hit boiling point. On 18 December, the UK cabinet agreed to implement its no deal preparations in full, injecting an extra £2bn into the process. The government also recommended that businesses ensure that they are similarly prepared. Meanwhile, the EU will publish its plans for a no deal scenario on 19 December.
Just 100 days out from 29 March 2019, the date that the UK is set to leave the EU, and the draft Withdrawal Agreement remains unratified by the UK parliament. Moreover, there are no apparent signs that MPs will be willing to give it approval when it finally comes to the floor of the House of Commons four weeks from now.
At present, in the absence of consent for any kind of deal, the viable options appear to be narrowing to a straight choice between no deal or no Brexit. And of these two, the former seems the most likely outcome. So, how have we arrived here and how might the countdown to Brexit play out?
The fact that the vote on the draft Withdrawal Agreement has been delayed until the week of 14 January means that if the deal is rejected, as seems almost inevitable, there is minimal time to renegotiate its terms with the EU. And, if the events at the Brussels summit in December are any indication, the chances that a major breakthrough might be made in such a short timeframe appear remote. It might, therefore, be argued the only way to allow enough time to secure a deal that is acceptable to the UK parliament would be to seek extension of Article 50 beyond 29 March. However, whilst the EU would be open to this option, Theresa May has already ruled this out.
Also crossed off the list of options, at least as far as the Prime Minister is concerned, is a second referendum. Theresa May insists that the result of the 2016 referendum must be respected and that to hold a second vote risks deepening divisions in the UK.
So, no acceptance of the current draft deal, no extension of Article 50 and no second referendum would seem to the leave the UK with the aforementioned alternatives: no deal or no Brexit.
The path to no Brexit seems the more remote, since it would almost certainly require a change of government, either as a result of general election or vote of confidence against the current administration; or a majority of the public voting to remain if a second referendum is held.
That would appear to leave no deal as the most likely outcome and it is the default position should none of the other options come to fruition. However, most of the protagonists in the negotiations to date have said they want a deal. They must hope that enough MPs will be persuaded that the Withdrawal Agreement or some other as yet unspecified arrangement is preferable to no deal for this to happen.
What occurs in the immediate aftermath of the parliamentary vote is likely to be crucial in determining the fate of Brexit. The drama of December simply means that the window for arrangements to be made has shortened by four weeks. In the context of 100 days, that’s a long time.
