Yesterday, all the attention was, understandably, on the fate of the Withdrawal Agreement and that of the Prime Minister. Meanwhile, the elephant in the room, a no deal outcome, sat quietly in the corner waiting for its turn in the spotlight. MPs will now vote today on whether to evict the elephant and the expectation is that they will do so by emphatically rejecting the no deal option.
However, a vote against it would not be the end of the matter. No deal cannot be ‘removed from the table’ (or the elephant from the room) as many are calling for – it remains the default position unless and until a deal is reached or Article 50 is revoked.
If no deal is rejected by parliament then a further vote will take place on the question of whether to extend Article 50 on Thursday 14 March. At this point, facing a no deal Brexit only two weeks later, on 29 March, the expectation is that MPs will support an extension.
But, again, parliament voting for an extension of Article 50 does not automatically mean that it will happen, although it is likely. Ultimately, it is at the EU’s discretion to grant or deny an extension and to decide how long it should last. So, beyond a request by the UK for an extension, it is remarkably unclear what happens next.
To avoid a clash with European elections due to be held in May and the newly elected parliament sitting in July, the extension would have to be short. But would that be sufficient to find a way through the current impasse? It appears increasingly difficult to get the current Withdrawal Agreement through parliament and changing course to an alternative proposal could take much longer.
The EU will also require justifiable grounds to grant an extension and may insist on a longer period of reflection. Pressure is growing for a general election or a second referendum to be called. This might change the parliamentary arithmetic or alter the UK’s approach to Brexit and therefore break the current deadlock. However, if a lengthy extension is all that is on offer, Brexiteers may attempt to block it.
But the no deal elephant doesn’t vanish even with an extension. It would only postpone no deal up to the point of the new deadline. Whilst it would give more time for a deal to be reached, the numbers in parliament against one may remain insurmountable, particularly if a solution to the backstop issue isn’t found or a softer Brexit is pursued, either of which could encourage Brexiteers to dig their heels in and push for no deal. If an extension is pursued, this may also provide the EU with an opportunity to extract concessions from the UK in exchange for agreeing to a delay.
The no deal elephant may be told by parliament to pack its trunk, but elephants are notoriously hard to shift.
