Brexit drama continues to hit new heights. Last week, the Supreme Court ruled that Boris Johnson’s attempt to prorogue parliament had been without justification and promptly overturned the move.
MPs immediately returned to the House of Commons while the Prime Minister cut short his visit to the UN in New York to deal with the fallout.
There is now a tense stand-off as we await the deadline of 19 October, set by the Benn Act, for a deal to be reached. If no deal is forthcoming, the legislation requires the prime minister to write to the EU requesting a further extension to the date on which the UK will leave. There are still concerns among those who oppose a no deal outcome that Mr Johnson will attempt to ignore or navigate around the Benn Act, as he continues to insist that the UK will leave the EU on the official deadline of 31 October, with or without a deal.
And a deal, despite claims to the contrary, appears more remote than ever. The UK government is promising to flesh out its alternative proposals to the Irish backstop imminently but there is little expectation that they will pass muster with the EU and the UK parliament.
The possibility of Northern Ireland being under separate customs arrangements until a technological solution to the border issue can be found has been mooted. However, this was the proposal initially agreed between Theresa May and the EU back in December 2017 but then rejected by the DUP on the basis that it wouldn’t countenance Northern Ireland being treated differently to the rest of the UK after Brexit. It’s difficult to see how a similar proposal could win over enough MPs to support it now, even when facing the prospect of no deal.
The alternative route which the government is reported to be pursuing would involve some checks at customs clearance centres to be set up on or near the border for goods passing between the UK (Northern Ireland) and EU (Republic of Ireland). Again, this solution is expected to provoke significant opposition among MPs who see the move as a potential threat to the Good Friday Agreement. The Republic of Ireland and, by association, the EU would almost certainly reject this too as this course of events would effectively follow from a no deal anyway.
The UK government is expected to formally submit its proposals to the EU by the end of this week and a response is anticipated shortly after.
Meanwhile, back in Westminster, with the government’s majority obliterated, a general election is widely expected very soon. However, due to the terms of the Fixed Term Parliament Act 2015, it appears that the Opposition parties have control of when this will happen. They have ruled out calling a vote of no confidence in the government until they can be sure that the possibility of a no deal outcome has been eliminated and an extension requested.
So, as we enter the month of reckoning, is Brexit any closer to being done? It’s impossible to give a definitive answer, given the almost daily twists and turns, but we should certainly get a sense of the direction of travel very soon. As things stand, the options appear to boil down to no deal followed by an election versus an extension of Article 50 followed by an election. Right now, deal seems the least likely result before the end of October.
