Two weeks ago, this blog heralded the final month before the Brexit deadline with the news that the chances of a fresh deal were remote. How things change. Now, with just two weeks to go before that deadline expires, a new way forward has been agreed between UK and EU negotiators.
The Irish border backstop, the principal cause of delay and disagreement in the process, has been replaced by a new protocol which essentially places a customs border in the Irish Sea. Goods will be checked at ‘points of entry’ in Northern Ireland, with those destined for the EU being subject to tariffs. A list of goods at risk of crossing into the Republic of Ireland without having been subject to duty will be drawn up and monitored by a joint UK-EU committee. Any duty paid on goods entering and remaining in Northern Ireland originating from other parts of the UK may be refunded.
Essentially, this means that Northern Ireland will be subject to different customs rules than the rest of the UK. But the protocol gives the Northern Ireland Assembly an opportunity to vote four years after the transition period ends in December 2020 on whether to retain these rules. If the rules are rejected at that point, then a further two years would be granted to find an alternative backstop solution.
However (possibly the most frequently used word across the history of this blog), we are effectively only back at the point which Theresa May reached last November in getting an agreement with her EU counterparts but with the ratification process in parliament still to negotiate. That proved an impossible task back then and early indications are that Boris Johnson’s efforts may also prove fruitless. The DUP, whose support is considered to be vital to getting a deal, appears as opposed to this version as it was to the original. It’s expected that they will be joined by some ERG members, meaning that a rejection of the deal is a real prospect, but it looks like being a very close call.
Parliament is due to scrutinise and vote on the deal in an almost unprecedented extra sitting of parliament on Saturday. This is coincides with the date set by Benn Act for the prime minister to write to the EU requesting a further extension to the deadline if no agreement has been reached. The assumption all along has been that the EU will grant another extension but the noises from Brussels immediately following this deal was that the deadline will remain 31 October.
Armed with this news, rumours are circulating that the government will put the new agreement to MPs in a binary vote – accept the deal or expect no deal in the absence of an extension. This is likely to meet with strong opposition from MPs who have persistently rejected a no deal outcome and sets up a dramatic confrontation in the House of Commons this weekend.
So, a done deal? Don’t bank on it.
