Brexit delay – a step into the unknown

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Well, even in the extraordinarily dramatic tale that is Brexit, it’s been quite a week.

On Thursday, parliament voted to request an extension of Article 50, thereby delaying Brexit, by a thumping majority of 211 votes.

The Prime Minister will bring back her deal for a third vote in parliament early next week and before she travels to Brussels for the next EU summit at the end of the week. If it passes this time, she will request a short extension of Article 50, until 30 June, to get the necessary legislation through parliament. A third rejection of the Withdrawal Agreement would mean that a longer extension, until October 2019 at least, is likely to be needed.

The government has said that it will allow a series of indicative votes to be held, in order to find a Brexit strategy that the majority of parliament would be prepared to support, if Article 50 has to be extended for a considerable period.

Labour MP Hilary Benn tabled an amendment to the motion to extend Article 50, which would have allowed parliament to trigger indicative votes regardless of the length of an extension requested. It was defeated by just two votes, but the government has hinted that indicative votes will take place anyway if the Withdrawal Agreement is rejected again next week.

Either way, as the dust settles on the last 72 turbulent hours, two things have become clear, even if the rest of the picture has become cloudier.

Firstly, parliament has asserted its control over the process in the UK, whilst the EU is about to play a huge role in what comes next.

That’s because, secondly, it is now almost certain that an extension of Article 50 will be required. It is entirely in the hands of EU to grant an extension and to dictate the terms involved. As a result, there is now little chance that the UK will leave the EU on 29 March 2019 and, having been the day that everyone has worked towards for the last two years, it will become just another date in the calendar.

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