As mentioned in our previous Brexit blog, Theresa May has entered into cross-party talks with Labour to seek a compromise on the proposed Withdrawal Agreement that would allow it to be passed by parliament. Details of what has been discussed are sketchy but there appears to be some consensus emerging on the issues of alignment with the EU on workers’ rights and standards related to goods. However, the key sticking points are whether to accept remaining within a customs union of some description and whether any deal struck should be put back to the public for a confirmatory vote.
The urgency to make a breakthrough in the talks stems from the need for the Prime Minister to return to Brussels today (10 April) with a coherent rationale for securing a second extension to Article 50.
The EU is willing to allow a customs union with the UK after Brexit and appears to be applying pressure on Theresa May to accept this in exchange for a long extension to Article 50, thereby avoiding a disorderly no deal exit. The intention of the emergency summit in Brussels is to set the new Brexit deadline, with December 2019 or March 2020 as the dates preferred by the EU. However, Mrs May has previously stated that she would find it difficult to countenance an extension beyond 30 June.
The notion of a customs union and long extension of Article 50 is deeply unpopular among Brexiteer MPs. They argue that this would not honour the result of the 2016 referendum and would lock the UK in a trading relationship with the EU, thus hampering its ability to strike trade deals with countries outside the Eurozone.
The EU has also discouraged the UK from leaving without a deal by reiterating that such an outcome would still mean that trade talks could not begin until the Withdrawal Agreement issues are dealt with – i.e. financial settlement paid, Irish border issue resolved, citizens’ rights commitments upheld.
In a move that indicates the narrowing Brexit options and the closing window to make progress, the UK government has triggered preparations for taking part in European elections if required, due to be held in May.
29 March has passed, and it looks as though 12 April will too but still without Brexit having happened. What will the new deadline be? We should know very soon – stay tuned…
