So, now there are two options for the date that the UK will leave the EU…and neither is 29 March.
At the latest EU summit, the 27 member states unanimously agreed to set two new deadlines for Brexit, depending on what parliament does next. If MPs vote in favour of the Withdrawal Agreement, then the EU will extend Article 50 until 22 May to allow parliament to pass the necessary legislation. If the deal is rejected again, as is widely expected, then the new Brexit deadline will be set for 12 April to find a new way forward. Depending on what that entails, the EU may allow a further extension which could be until the end of 2019.
However, if no alternative proposal can be agreed by parliament, then the UK would leave without a deal on that date.
The Prime Minister is likely to put the deal to parliament again on Monday. However, it’s not yet clear if the Speaker, John Bercow, will even allow another meaningful vote to be held. On 18 March, he stated that procedural rules did not permit the same motion to be voted on twice in the same parliamentary session.
If the vote is prohibited, or allowed but defeated, the UK will then be heading towards a no deal unless another solution is proposed. In this situation, it’s likely that there will be increased pressure on Theresa May to step down as Prime Minister. Potentially, all other options could return to the table at this point – revoking Article 50 to cancel Brexit, seeking a softer ‘Norway’ style deal involving a customs union, a second referendum, or a general election.
Essentially, as Eric Schweizer, President of the German Chamber of Commerce, has said, the new deadlines provide ‘a moment to breathe – nothing more’. What the UK parliament and the Prime Minister decide to do with that moment will be pivotal to the Brexit outcome. Although no longer the cliff edge, next week will be another landmark week for Brexit. Watch this space.
