As widely predicted, parliament voted to reject leaving the EU without a deal last night. The government’s motion to reject leaving without a deal by 29 March was beefed up by a backbench amendment which ruled out leaving without a deal at any point in the future. This was passed by 43 votes but is not binding, as the UK will leave without a deal on 29 March unless Article 50 is extended or revoked. A vote on calling for an extension will be held this evening.
In response to the no deal vote, Theresa May warned parliament that it would face a lengthy delay to Brexit if it failed to ratify the proposed Withdrawal Agreement. She hinted that she would call a third meaningful vote on the deal by Wednesday 20 March. Her calculation appears to be that Brexiteer MPs will drop their opposition to it if faced with an alternative scenario of significant extension (possibly a year or longer) which may result in Brexit being cancelled. To achieve her aim, Mrs May will need to persuade at least 75 MPs to change their mind. Discussions are now taking place to determine if the legal advice on the backstop can be revised to convince anti-Agreement MPs that the backstop will not be a permanent arrangement. If the legal advice can be altered in this way, it might be enough to push the deal through at the third attempt.
The Prime Minister explained to parliament that if the Withdrawal Agreement can be accepted next week then the government would seek a short extension to Article 50, until 30 June, in order to get the necessary legislation passed.
However, if the Withdrawal Agreement was to be rejected for a third time then all bets are off as to what happens next. If the margin of defeat is again significant, then the need to call a general election becomes a strong possibility.
Given the rejection of no deal last night, an extension to Article 50 is likely. There are calls from several MPs across parliament to hold a series of indicative votes on what its Brexit strategy should be during that period. This process could involve a series of options that will be placed before MPs with the least popular option eliminated at each stage, until one proposal remains which has the backing of the majority of parliament.
That said, beyond tonight’s vote, the outcome of Brexit becomes more unfathomable than ever…
