“Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated” is an often quoted quip by the American writer Mark Twain. The question among Brexit-watchers is whether this statement can also be applied to Theresa May’s Chequers plan.
All eyes are focused on the October EU summit (or a special Brexit summit in November) as the last opportunity to sign off UK withdrawal from the EU and the chances of a deal being brokered are being assessed. However, the bigger issue may be whether a deal based on the Chequers plan could then be accepted by the UK parliament (and the legislatures of all EU 27 members, for that matter).
Against some fierce opposition, Theresa May is determinedly sticking to the proposed Chequers blueprint which involves the UK continuing to follow EU trade rules on goods but not services. The EU continues to insist that the rules cannot apply for goods alone as this would undermine the workings of the single market.
Staunch Brexiteers are poised to rebel against the plan, hinting that it should be abandoned in favour of a ‘Canada model’ free trade deal. They express concerns that, if anything resembling the Chequers plan ends up as the final deal, the UK will continue to be tied to EU regulations and Brexit will have been achieved ‘in name only’.
The main UK opposition party, Labour, is calling for an approach that maintains a closer relationship with the EU, including the negotiation of new customs union, committing to EU rules regarding goods and services, and accepting the jurisdiction of a common court – all of which is very much nearer the ‘Norway model’.
However, if none of these options can garner enough support to win a majority vote in parliament then the ‘no deal’ scenario is almost certainly on the cards.
Realistically, although seemingly much-maligned, it is the Chequers proposal as the strategy of the sitting UK government, which is most likely to be put before the EU. To what extent, if any, the Prime Minister chooses to, or is forced to, compromise on her plan will be crucial.
The ‘Canada model’ could become the option on the table if the Brexiteers oust Mrs May as Prime Minister through a leadership challenge or if the Chequers plan is ditched by the UK government without a viable alternative being presented. If the latter scenario plays out, then the EU itself might present a free trade deal to the UK on a ‘take it or leave with no deal’ basis.
For the ‘Norway model’ to end up as the tabled proposal, the current UK government would have to fall and be replaced by Labour. Though not beyond the realms of possibility, due to the febrile nature of UK politics at present, the uncertainty of the potential outcome may deter would-be protagonists from going down that route.
Domestic wrangling aside, the Irish border dilemma remains the biggest roadblock to a deal with the EU and is the subject on which negotiations will focus as the deadline approaches. On 10th September, Michel Barnier gave positive signals that he believed a deal could be achieved by the beginning of November “if both sides are realistic.” This apparent softening of tone is perceived to be in support of Theresa May and her Chequers plan which the EU sees as the best chance to secure a deal of any kind.
Both in Westminster and Brussels, Brexit matters are coming to a head and the events of the coming weeks will determine much of what is to follow. The outcome may well come down to who blinks first.
Article published: 11th September 2018
