At times during the last two years, Brexit has felt much like scaling a mountain. It’s sometimes been a difficult path to follow, with several competing voices suggesting that they know the best route to the top and nobody knowing for certain the view that will confront them at the summit.
And it is a summit of a different kind that will decide the fate of the negotiations. The next EU summit scheduled for 18-19 October was meant to be original deadline for finalising the withdrawal treaty and political declaration about the future relationship between the UK and the EU. It is now likely that this will be pushed back to next summit on 17-18 November.
To return to our mountain metaphor, despite the much discussed Irish border/customs union cloud currently obscuring the way ahead, both sides remain upbeat about the chances of a deal being reached.
Though it may be possible to scale the mountain and briefly bask in the glow of achieving a significant feat, the negotiators must then return to their respective base camps with their newly ‘re-drawn maps’ (i.e. the deal). And this is where the path becomes treacherous once more, particularly for the UK government. Getting any deal through parliament still looks very challenging and the hard climb may still prove to have been all for nothing.
From the EU’s perspective, the outlook is more positive and the publication of the European Commission’s advice on reacting to a no deal scenario has been delayed due to recent progress made in Brexit talks.
However, the prospect of a no deal outcome (a metaphorical avalanche, some might say), brought about by failing to reach the summit or by a base camp revolt, still lingers. The UK government is preparing for such an eventuality, issuing a succession of technical notices to businesses and individuals on subjects ranging from data protection to mobile phone roaming charges.
Meanwhile, a survey conducted by the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) has revealed that only 14% of small businesses have begun preparations for a no deal despite more widespread concern within the business community of the possible effects.
And so, the trek to the summit continues as darkness (the Brexit deadline) falls, with debate still raging over the best direction to take…
Article published: 11th October 2018
